People often ask me how i went from working for the government to fashion. Analysis of competing hypothesis ach brunel university. Analysis of competing hypotheses ach is a simple model for how to think. And to be honest i dont work in fashion i work in analytics for a fashion company. Psychology of intelligence analysis central intelligence agency. Ach abbreviation stands for analysis of competing hypotheses. The techniques covered include industry analysis, competitive positioning analysis, business model analysis, servo analysis, supply chain management analysis, benchmarking analysis, mckinsey 75 analysis, shadowing, product line analysis, winloss analysis, strategic relationship analysis, corporate reputation analysis, critical success factors analysis, country risk analysis, driving forces. The software downloadable here takes an analyst through a process for making a wellreasoned, analytical judgment. Fifty intelligence analysts were randomly assigned to use ach or not when completing a hypothesis testing task that had probabilistic ground truth. We read every letter, fax, or email we receive, and we will convey your comments to cia officials outside opa as appropriate. It helps an analyst overcome, or at least minimize, some of the cognitive limitations that make prescient inte. What is the abbreviation for analysis of competing hypotheses. At the time of writing, however, we assessed there to be insufficient evidence to corroborate this claim of attribution to this group, and alternative hypotheses should be considered. Both are being used to teach and train intelligence analysts throughout the intelligence community and in a growing number of academic programs on.
The program comes with multiple nice features and tools that you can check. To complete the ach steps of fusion and conclusion. Analysis of competing hypotheses ach is a simple model for how to think about a complex problem when the available information is incomplete or ambiguous, as typically happens in intelligence analysis. It takes you through a process for making a wellreasoned, analytical judgment. Analysis of competing hypotheses is a simple model for how to think about a complex problem. It is a procedure for determining which of a range of hypotheses is most likely to be true, given the available evidence. May 18, 2017 analysis has indicated that wannacry samples from february 2017 contained a small section of code identical to those used in previous lazarus campaigns. Analysis of competing hypotheses an analytical process by former cia analyst richards j heuer, jr. Structured analysis of competing hypotheses theory and application chido on. The sach maximizes the possible hypotheses by allowing the analyst to split one hypothesis into two complex ones.
Use the analysis of competing hypotheses computer program to analyze multiple hypotheses. Analysis of competing hypotheses sans digital forensics. Analysis of competing hypotheses ach promises a relatively objective and tractable methodology for ranking the plausibility of competing hypotheses. By clicking on or navigating this site, you accept our use of cookies in accordance with our cookie policy close this message. The open source analysis of competing hypotheses project. Analysis of competing hypotheses, ach, is a simple model for how to think about and fuse geospatial information into analytic problems. By clicking on or navigating this site, you accept our use of cookies in accordance with our cookie policy. You will find all the tools you need to solve your problems at the. The structured analysis of competing hypotheses offers analysts an improvement over the limitations of the original ach. Designed for strategic and tactical intelligence analysis national security, defence, trade, etc. Confidence intervals and test of hypotheses for proportions duration.
Analysis of competing hypothesis ach dustin k macdonald. Jun 26, 20 the office of public affairs opa is the single point of contact for all inquiries about the central intelligence agency cia. Analysis of competing hypotheses breaks a complex problem down into its component parts. Alternative analysis, and in particular ach, is seen as so important that the cias sherman kent school for intelligence analysis runs a monthly alternative analysis workshop and has introduced an.
Ach screen in the context of a research contract for u. Free computer program for analyzing multiple hypotheses. Encourages systematic analysis of multiple competing hypotheses. Analysis of competing hypotheses ach essay example. Theory and practice in teaching unformatted document text. The following elements distinguish analysis of competing hypotheses from conventional intuitive analysis. You will also find instructions and tutorials for the ach software at the pherson associates, llc web site. Analysis of competing hypotheses discover your solutions llc. It helps an analyst overcome, or at least minimize, some of the cognitive limitations that make prescient intelligence analysis so difficult to achieve. Dec 31, 2007 the analysis of competing hypotheses method, or ach, is one of the most important tools on the intelligence analysts bench. How to reduce analytical bias by applying analysis of. Analysis of competing hypotheses using subjective logic simon pope, audun jlsang crc for enterprise distributed systems technology dstc pty ltd level 7, general purpose south the university of queensland, 4072 australia voice. In step 3, you worked across the matrix, focusing on a single item of evidence or argument and examining against each hypotheses. Ach analysis of competing hypotheses intelligence analysis.
Software freeware analysis of competing hypotheses software. Nov 01, 2016 disprove your hypotheses you can have all the evidence in the world to back one hypothesis but if there is one piece of evidence that disproves it you can reject it. An analysis of competing hypotheses digital shadows. Structuring and analyzing competing hypotheses with. System gis that runs on linux, unix, mac osx, windows and android.
Analysis of competing hypotheses, sometimes abbreviated ach, is a tool to aid judgment on important issues requiring careful weighing of alternative explanations or conclusions. Analysis of competing hypotheses using subjective logic achsl. The analysis of competing hypotheses ach is said to an unbiased methodology for evaluating multiple competing hypotheses for observed data. Alternative analysis, and in particular ach, is seen as so important that the cias sherman kent. How to install the data analysis toolpak in microsoft. Analyses of competing hypotheses first look and beginner. Hypothesis testing matrix create a matrix to test your solutions. As we have included ach in our geospatial analytic method, it takes the geospatial analyst through a process to make wellreasoned, analytical judgments using both nongeospatial and geospatial information. Analysis of competing hypotheses ach the iconic tech. Structured analysis of competing hypotheses theory and. What i want to share with the digital analytics community is continue reading analysis of competing hypotheses for digital analytics. Many of these, like brain storming, key assumptions checks, what if, red teams, or devils advocacy are widely used in many forms of analysis. Consistent evidence does not provide diagnosticity. Analysis of competing hypotheses enterprise risk management.
Singh department of computer science, north carolina state university, raleigh, nc 276958206, usa. Bayesian analysis of competing hypotheses scenario probability analysis. Analysis of competing hypotheses digital forensics. Post your analysis to the lesson 7 discussion forum. Analysis of competing hypotheses ach analysis of competing hypotheses ach is a law enforcement process that can prevent cognitive biases and,since the matrix leaves a trail of evidence, it can be traced back easily to reevaluate if something goes wrong. It is an analytic process that identifies a complete set of alternative hypotheses, systematically evaluates data that is consistent and inconsistent with each hypothesis, and rejects hypotheses that contain too much inconsistent data. Often we set out to prove something and then are persuaded by certain key pieces of.
Summary the intelligence community uses structured analytic techniques to help analysts think critically and avoid cognitive bias. A dot gov website, they provide eight high level steps. Jul 07, 2008 analysis of competing hypotheses analysis of competing hypotheses, sometimes abbreviated ach, is a tool to aid judgment on important issues requiring careful weighing of alternative explanations or conclusions. I cited, for example, the paper by valtorta, marco et al. The theory of analysis of competing hypotheses over the years, intelligence community practitioners have developed or adapted a range of simple or more complicated structured analytic techniques sats to aid in conducting intelligence analysis. Structured analytic techniques for intelligence analysis. Analysis of competing hypotheses hurricane capital. Hypothesis testing matrix tool discover your solutions llc. Its simplicity creates both strengths and weaknesses. The analysis of competing hypotheses in intelligence. An analytical process by former cia analyst richards j heuer, jr. Analysis of competing hypothesis ach is an intelligence analysis technique developed in the 1980s by richard heurer 1999 when he was. No special materials are required to complete this activity ittiilit procedure 1.
Analysis starts with a brainstorming session to identify a full set of alternative hypotheses, rather than with a most likely alternative for which the analyst seeks confirmation. Resolving goal conflicts via argumentationbased analysis of. Detecting deception by analysis of competing hypotheses. The analysis of competing hypotheses in intelligence analysis. Jan 20, 2011 the open source analysis of competing hypotheses project. The analysis of competing hypotheses ach 7 was developed to provide a framework for assisted reasoning that would help overcome these limitations. Analysis of competing hypotheses for digital analytics. Ach is grounded in basic insights from cognitive psychology, decision analysis, and the scientific method. Qgis is a powerful and user friendly open source geographic information system gis that runs on linux, unix, mac osx, windows and android. Analysis of competing hypothesis ach brunel university london. Evaluating cladograms in this experiment you will evaluate two competing hypotheses of evolutionary relationships cladograms of lizards to different taxa of fishes by calculating and comparing their tree lengths using parsimony. Psychology of intelligence analysis central intelligence.
The purpose of ach is to allow an analyst to compare all potential hypotheses against the available evidence in order to identify the most likely option among. Our domain lacks discipline in analysis where our hypotheses are not deterministically and immediately testable. We examined the use of the analysis of competing hypotheses ach a technique designed to reduce confirmation bias. Volume calculator for the screening of exploration opportunities. Both are being used to teach and train intelligence analysts throughout the intelligence community and in a growing number of academic programs on intelligence or national security. Creates an explicit record of the use of hypotheses and evidence that can be shared. Analysis of competing hypotheses ach is a simple model for how to think about a complex problem. Jul 16, 2017 analysis of competing hypothesis ach is an intelligence analysis technique developed in the 1980s by richard heurer 1999 when he was an analyst at the central intelligence agency. Apr 22, 2009 analysis of competing hypotheses ach is a simple model for how to think about a complex problem when the available information is incomplete or ambiguous, as typically happens in intelligence analysis. Analysis of competing hypotheses ach is a multivariable, qualitative technique that aids judgment on important issues requiring careful weighing of alternative explanations or conclusions. Learn how to think when it comes to complex problems and use this program to conduct the analysis of competing hypotheses together with.
For example, two tested hypotheses could be that iraq has wmd or iraq does not have wmd. Analysis of competing hypotheses using subjective logic. Draft june 27, 2005 3 broad caveats for the method ach 1. Analysis of competing hypotheses ach is a simple model for how to think about a complex problem when the available information is. This ensures that alternative hypotheses receive equal. Qgis supports vector, raster, and database formats. Software freeware law enforcement intelligence analysis. The purpose of the law enforcement intelligence analysis digital library is to meet.
Resolving goal conflicts via argumentationbased analysis. Windows vista or higher or a window emulator on a mac. Analysis of competing hypotheses ach is a free computer program used to evaluate multiple hypotheses. Analysis has indicated that wannacry samples from february 2017 contained a small section of code identical to those used in previous lazarus campaigns. Hypothesis testing matrix tool ranks competing hypotheses by the least inconsistent evidence only inconsistent evidence can help you distinguish the differences between your solutions consistent evidence proves nothing, since it can support multiple hypotheses. It is an analytic process that identifies a complete set of alternative.
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